Lieutenant Craig Allen is employed as the Risk Manager for Merlin Helicopter Force at RNAS Culdrose. A non-aviator, he has stepped into a traditionally aircrew environment and has far exceeded his expected tasks and significantly improved not only Merlin Helicopter Force safety and risk management but developed tools and systems transferrable to the whole military aviation fleet, with potential to improve Defence-wide aviation safety and risk management using an evidence based, forward looking, approach.

Initially temporarily assigned to Merlin Helicopter Force, Lt Allen began looking at the complex problem of scoring and measuring how effective procedures, equipment and measures (barriers) are at preventing a risk- based event such as mid-air collision, as part of the Bow-Tie risk management system. The capability of this process relied on a panel of experienced and qualified personnel being assembled to “score” activities using judgement and experience to measure the effectiveness of these barriers.

While deemed acceptable by the Regulatory Authority, he identified that this system offered no qualitative system of underpinning the scoring, meaning the effectiveness of the barrier could be flawed or manipulated by the makeup of the panel. Self-taught on Power BI, a Microsoft tool for business analytics that lets you visualise your data and share insights, Lt Allen sought to develop a system for cross-mapping Defence Aviation Safety and Occurrence Reports and scoring them against barriers. Using these scores, the person responsible for the barrier and Risk to Life duty holders can see where they have effective barriers and easily identify where their system has weak points that could lead to an accident chain.

While developing this, Lt Allen further identified that the Air System Safety Case also relied on a series of subjective statements in the ‘Claim-Argument-Evidence’ based document, where the evidence was buried deep in the Defence Aviation Safety and Occurrence Reporting system, or again through subjective panels of experienced and qualified personnel.

Creating further Power BI tools in liaison with an RN Safety Manager and Military Aviation Authority experts, he has implemented a system that enables the Defence Aviation Safety and Occurrence Reports to be scored against both Bow-Tie barriers, and also Air System Safety Case sub-claims, giving a reliable, evidence based, qualitative assessment of risk up to risk to life holding Admiral level.

It will take time to fully realise the benefits of Lt Allen’s work, this is due to the time it will take to further build the database of Defence Aviation Safety and Occurrence Reports evidence, but in the meantime, the systems he has developed are being used to provide early warning of failing barriers, alerting owners that changes are needed, while also providing underpinning evidence to the Air System Safety Case. His work could ultimately lead to early identification of a hidden risk and prevent an accident from happening.  Attracting much attention, his work has been briefed to the Rear Admiral of the Fleet Air Arm, and wider to the Military Aviation Authority who are working with him to take this on for employment across the defence estate.

Working largely unaided, innovatively, self-teaching en-route, and achieving well beyond the bounds of his Terms of References, Lt Allen identified an area that undermined aviation safety and dedicated his time to establishing a system to address potential safety shortfalls. It is not possible to say for certain if he has prevented an accident, but what he has done is establish a system that moves risk management and scoring from subjective to objective, maximising the evidence available, and linking the Bow-Tie, Defence Aviation Safety and Occurrence Reporting and Air System Safety Case safety systems potentially across the defence aviation arena. This is a rare forward-looking approach in a world traditionally based on learning from previous incidents.  For his outstanding contribution to aviation safety, Lt Craig Allen is awarded the Cumberbatch Trophy.

1936/37  Imperial Airways
Sqn Ldr H G Brackley DSO DSC, F J Bailey Esq, W Rodgers Esq AFM, F Dismore Esq,
LA Walters Esq, H J Horsey Esq, O P Jones Esq, A S Wilcockson Esq, A B H Youell Esq

1937/38  Olley Air Services
Captain G P Olley MM, T W Morton Esq, C W H Bebb Esq, F R Midgley Esq, R D Morrison Esq,
J Dendy Esq, G E B Stoney Esq, J E B Scott Esq

1938/39  Messers Wrightways Ltd
J W Duggan Esq, F Brent Esq, P C Fair Esq, G G Stead Esq

1948/49  Air Cdre H G Brackley CBE DSO DSC

1949/50  Aer Lingus

1950/51  No. 3 Line B.O.A.C.

1951/52  Tasman Empire Airways Limited

1952/53  Professor E S Calvert BSc ARSc

1953/54  British West Indian Airways

1954/55  Silver City Airways Ltd

1955/56  Captain W B Calldwell & Captain E W Jorden and Flying Staff, British European Airways, Channel Islands Services

1956/57  Malayan Airways Limited

1957/58  Trans-Australian Airlines

1959/60  James Martin Esq CBE

1960/61  Royal Air Force, Institute of Aviation Medicine

1961/62  Aden Airways Limited

1962/63  D P Davies Esq

1963/64  Blind Landing Experimental Unit of the Royal Aircraft Establishment

1964/65  John Wright Gibbs Esq MBE (posthumous)

1965/66  Britannia 102 + 312 Flights BOAC

1966/67  Dr E S Calvert OBE & J W Sparks Esq

1967/68  W E B Griffiths Esq CBE

1968/69  J A Karran Esq OBE

1969/70  Captain E N Jennings MBE DFC

1970/71  Qantas Airways Limited

1971/72  Captain Frank Ormonroyd DFM MA & Captain Eric L R Poole

1972/73  John W Wilson Esq

1973/74  J F M Moyle Esq

1974/75  John Henri Grant Esq

1975/76  S Gordon Corps Esq

1976/77  Joint Airmiss Working Group (Chairman: Group Captain David Hughes DFC AFC)

1978  not awarded

1978/79  Captain Frank H Hawkins

1979/80  Captain Philip Brentnall DFC

1980/81  John Michael Ramsden Esq

1981/82  VC10 Flight of British Airways

1982/83  Captain T L J Lakin W H Grice Esq Captain P J Hunt (British Airways 'All Weather' Team)

1984 - 1989  not awarded

1989/90  Qantas Airways Limited

1991 - 1992  not awarded

1992/93  Ronald Ashford Esq

1993/94  Ken M Carpenter PhD

1994/95  William D Reynard Esq

1995/96  British Airways Safety Services

1996/97  Don Bateman Esq

1998  not awarded

1999/2000  John Thorpe MRAeS

2000/01  R Curtis Graeber PhD FRAeS

2001/02  S Eric Clark BSc CEng FRAeS

2003  not awarded

2003/04  Alan R Jacobsen PhD

2004/05  Stuart Mathews

2005/06  Kathy Abbott PhD MSc FRAeS

2007 - 2010  not awarded

2010/11  James Ray Klinect PhD and the LOSA Collaborative

2011/12  Harbour Air Seaplanes

2013 - 2014  not awarded

2014/15  Hugh Browning

2016   not awarded

2017  Cdr Ian S Fitter RN

2018  Michael O'Donoghue CBE

2019  WOI Peter R Balcomb AAC

2020  Master Air Engineer Stephen Hammond

2021  Tim Tucker

2022  Dr Ratan Khatwa

2023  Lieutenant Craig Allen RN